Assessing Risks

 Years ago, I was discussing an idea with KH. He thought I was delusional. This did not sit well with me. Knowing something is a long-shot is not delusional; thinking a long-shot is a sure thing is delusional.

I found something similar in Rebecca Tuhus-Dubrow's The tension between overestimating risks and ignoring them (Los Angeles Times)

I’ve learned a few lessons to help navigate the dilemmas we all face. Don’t consider risks in isolation; put them in context. Take both expert assessments and anecdotal evidence with a grain of salt. Resist allying yourself with any particular tribe or team. Be honest, with yourself and others, about your own biases and predispositions.

I will admit, when I depressed, I did not factor in the depression as altering my thinking. No longer do I feel like the Universe is playing a joke on me. However, then it felt so very rational.

sch 5/23