What Kind of Morons Run Indiana?

 Anyone paying attention to what I post here will know I like posting material from Michael J. Hicks. He is a professor of economics and the director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University. So, I am also standing up for my alma mater, but even more importantly, he writes sensibly and with relevance to life in Indiana. 

I found What Made Us Fumble Education Policy? through THE INDIANA CITIZEN. It contains much of why I pay attention to Professor Hicks, and why you should do the same.

Indiana made a billion-dollar mistake based on a flawed jobs forecast a decade ago, and we’re still paying for it. State officials in 2015 used discredited federal methodology to predict a massive shortage of workers without college degrees. They were catastrophically wrong, but not before the forecast shaped education policy that steered thousands of students away from higher education.

This mistake began with good intentions. In late 2014, Gov. Mike Pence announced plans to create a stronger pathway to non-college career opportunities for high school students. He emphasized in speeches the need for academic preparation as well as a pathway for every student.

Schools needed guidance on what careers to prepare for, so the state Department of Workforce Development stepped in with an occupation forecast that used a methodology from the Bureau of Labor Statistics—projections that have faced criticism for systematic flaws since the mid-1970s.

A billion-dollar mistake in a state that is kicking people off of public assistance?

The DWD nonetheless projected that by 2024 there’d be a shortage of 385,000 workers who hadn’t been to college and an oversupply of more than 231,000 workers who’d been to college. The fact that nothing like this had ever happened anywhere before didn’t dissuade the DWD. This projection went on to influence cuts to higher education funding.

What actually happened? The exact opposite.

Instead of losing jobs for non-college workers, Hoosier businesses actually created just over 92,000 jobs. The big forecast error was on college jobs. The DWD projected a surplus of 231,000 workers who’d been to college. In actuality, there were 140,000 more jobs for college graduates.

Even with state policy moving the needle in their direction, the DWD projection was off by 371,000 jobs. All economic forecasts are wrong, but most are useful. Given the predictably poor track record, the DWD projections shouldn’t have been used for policy development. Indeed, I know of no other state that actually uses these to inform public spending.

No other state uses this data for public spending? Shouldn't that be a clue to Indiana's legislators?

Professor Hicks leaves us some hope:

Fortunately, the legislature has backed off some of the more egregious efforts to steer kids away from college, and very few state leaders are actively telling families that college is not worth it any longer. That doesn’t erase the funding cuts to K-12 and higher education.

The most hopeful news is that changes to 21st Century Scholars program should also orient more Hoosiers towards post-secondary education. We’ll know about that success in the next couple years.

In the meantime, the economic losses due to lower educational attainment will continue throughout the work life of that cohort of young Hoosiers.

Unlike Professor Hicks, I will speculate that Indiana Republicans find an electorate with fewer college graduates less likely to vote them out of office.

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