Thinking I had done a good job dealing with the heat dome, then I spent an hour outside today. See, I missed the bus to take me back from the Payless grocery on Tillotson. Things had done well enough by then - a hair cut and groceries bought, all before noon. I meant to go to the laundry, too. Only when I got home my feet ached too much, and I took the bed - for what was to be a half hour. Instead, it took me 5 hours to get out, and then only by sheer willpower. Five hours of my legs twitching and weird dream; it felt more like I had a fever.
I went down to the convenience store for RC Cola. I have gone through about one bottle already. Dishes were washed, emails read, some articles marked for commentary, and dinner is on the stove. It is still too darned home and humid. The temperature, according to MSN, is 79 degrees.
I called off going to church tomorrow. My thinking was I might never wake up, or my legs would stay wobbly. There is also a need for clean clothes.
Pitchfork reviewed two albums that I want to post about. The first probably needs no help, but the other is a new artist that I find interesting.
Tracks II: The Lost Albums; Bruce Springsteen
That particular Greatest Hits, as it happens, would become my gateway to Springsteen fandom as a kid in the late ’90s. Since then, I’ve steadily turned to his work for meaning and guidance and shaped my life around a love of music. Would I have followed this same path if he swapped that welcoming overview for this dark unburdening? It’s impossible to say. But I do know that, 30 years later, it’s hitting the spot. The songs I keep coming back to are “The Farewell Party”—a poignant ballad offering dreams of transfiguration and “a life somewhere untouched by our failures”—and “Maybe I Don’t Know You.” That one’s a little simpler: a creeping rocker with a punching-bag drum loop that reminded me of Godflesh the first time I heard it. Across three verses, Springsteen draws noirish drama from a doomed romance, shadowed by changes he can’t put his finger on yet. “Is it something new?/Or just something you always hid?” he asks before reaching the chorus: “Maybe I don’t know you like I thought I did.” Once the initial novelty wears off of this strange, sprawling treasure trove of music, the real revelation begins to surface: After all this time, maybe we’re still just getting to know each other.
Planting by the Signs: S.G. Goodman
In Goodman’s music, there is always a new way to understand where you come from. For her, that place is Hickman, Kentucky—a town steeped in the scent of redtops and tobacco fields, where gas station attendants still pump your gas, and families attend church no fewer than three times a week. It’s a place Goodman conjures up with tactile clarity on her third album, Planting by the Signs. Each song is drowsy with heat. Goodman’s voice, once climbing into yelps, now sits chesty and grounded, its depth evoking early Lucinda Williams filtered through Cat Power’s Moon Pix. She sings with a little tremolo so that God can hear her better, and delivers her lyrics with the charm and ease of someone showing you around their home while tea whistles on the stove.
Goodman finds her own perspectives and idiosyncrasies in tradition. Drawing from a roots-rock sound, the drums stomp and clap with a crunch. The baritone on “Nature’s Child” sounds soaked in whiskey. The burnished tones of her keyboard pads drift lazily across “Heat Lightning” like cigarette butts floating down the Mississippi. All across the album, Goodman showcases a great understanding of space and how to fill it. Where she puts busier, low-end percussion in the bottom of the mix, as on “Satellite,” she makes sure her arrangements are sparse on the surface, her vocals and guitar gliding softly.
Now for the trepidation:
Dominic Rapini's The Week the Resistance Lost Everything (CT Examiner) gives us a look at the thinking from the Republican side of Trump's successful week; "Rapini was the 2022 Connecticut GOP candidate for Secretary of the State."
Ceasefire in Iran—yes, that Iran. The same regime that’s been the centerpiece of Beltway anxiety since 1979. Gone is the nuclear saber-rattling. In its place? Silence. Peace. Maybe even an opening. Turns out when you hit the ayatollahs hard enough, they pause to think. Who knew?
Except that Iran was not the one doing the saber-rattling; they kept saying it was for energy production; the rattling had come from Netanyahu. Jingo rah-rahing its manliness, using force being manly, force always accomplishing it goal is what I get from Mr. Rapini.
On the other hand, reality may be different from the fantasies that have Mr. Rapini so aroused: Israel-Gaza war: Netanyahu's hollow victory (New Statesman).
Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s long-held dream of a joint Israeli-American regime change war on Tehran came tantalisingly (or terrifyingly) close, but has so far failed to materialise. The Iranian regime appears, for now, to be emerging more entrenched and more repressive. Iran retains much of its ballistic missile arsenal, including some of the heaviest payloads. And even if its nuclear programme has been damaged to the extent claimed by Israel and the US – a highly contested assessment – the incentives for Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon, if only as a deterrent, have increased. In other words, all of Netanyahu’s original motivations for the war remain in play, in some ways more acutely than before – now coupled with the dangerous suggestion (perhaps misleading) that Israel can indeed survive a war that was once deemed apocalyptic.
***
Still, it is obvious that Netanyahu is aware that Israel accomplished all it could on its own, and that the momentum for open-ended American involvement in the conflict appears to have hit a ceiling – as have, reportedly, at least some of Israel’s interceptor missiles, which would mean the loss in property and lives in Israel would only grow if the war escalated. And the ceasefire with Iran could collapse at any moment – for instance, by some faction of Iran’s military apparatus retaliating (unlikely) or by Israel assuming it has the same freedom of action in Iran as it does in Lebanon, where it has continued to stage pinpoint air-raids and assassinations at will, despite the ceasefire being still in force (more likely).
***
Best of all, from Netanyahu’s perspective, is that he would then have both the mandate and the timeframe to finalise his authoritarian reforms – from politicising the judiciary to effectively strangling civil society. He would also gain, at the very least, four more years in which to launch a second war with Iran if necessary – and this time, ensure that America is fully dragged in to fight it all the way to the end.
Mr. Rapini thinks that dropping bombs will end the war. The same fantasy enjoyed by Bomber Harris in World War II.
Air Marshal Sir Arthur Harris (Juno Beach Centre)
Nicknamed “Bomber Harris”, Bomber Command’s Commander-in-Chief remains the most controversial of all WWII Allied officers. As early as 1945, damage assessment studies conducted in Germany raised doubts whether the massive destruction he ordered was at all warranted. Even nowadays, historians do not agree on the value of strategic bombing. Some blame Harris for the death of innocent civilians, especially during the last months of the war; others argue that he acted with full support of the British government and of Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and therefore, that he cannot be held personally responsible for actions that his government deemed to be essential to the final victory.
“Bomber” Harris and His Royal Air Force Bomber Command (Warfare History Network)
Harris never ceased in his tireless struggle to intensify the air offensive, and was convinced that it would bring Germany to its knees and shorten the war. “I feel certain that Germany must collapse before this program [the first phase of his “Battle of Berlin”], which is more than half completed already, has proceeded much further,” he told Churchill in the fall of 1944. “We have not got far to go. We must get the USAAF to wade in with greater force. If they will only get going according to plan and avoid such disastrous diversions as Ploesti, and getting ‘nearer’ to Germany from the plains of Lombardy (which are further from nine-tenths of Germany than is Norfolk), we can get through with it very quickly. We can wreck Berlin from end to end if the USAAF will come in on it. It will cost us between 400-500 aircraft. It will cost Germany the war.”
Which must be why those Soviet armies did not need to drive into Berlin.
The contours of Trump's Middle East policy (Engelsberg ideas)
The contours of his Middle East policy become, therefore, somewhat clearer. Trump is prepared to engage in short bursts of tangible, concrete action to secure America’s national security interests. This is far from being isolationist, which is what Trump is often accused of being. Instead, it signals a significant shift in US policy from America’s previous nation-building approach led by its post-Cold War unipolarity (further burnished by its sense of righteous purpose after 9/11) to one of unilateralism. Under this doctrine, America eschews protracted and expensive engagements in the Middle East while being prepared to act militarily when deemed necessary. Such engagements are designed to have a shocking impact, demonstrating awesome power and unpredictability of American might, while simultaneously providing off-ramps from actual conflict. If Trump is the pilot, then his policy is one of firing the engines on full-thrust before careening down the runway and then aborting the take-off at the final moment.
I am not aware of what Mr. Rapini reports here:
Then there’s the revival of the Abraham Accords, now roping in even Syria and Lebanon—two of the last holdouts in the Middle East. We’re not talking about nice words and platitudes. We’re talking about actual movement toward peace—real, tangible normalization. For the first time in our lifetime, maybe ever, the Middle East might not be on fire. And it’s not because someone held hands in Geneva—it’s because American strength finally means something again.
One bombing mission means a return of American strength? I would think the region has had plenty of examples of American power far beyond one bombing mission: destruction American arms inflicted on Iraq and Afghanistan; the effectiveness of Joe Biden chipping in American power when Iran fired its missiles at Israel; and how the United States Navy put the Houthis in their place.
Mr. Rapini might have overstated the "now roping in": Campaign to expand Abraham Accords sparks backlash after al-Sharaa appears with Netanyahu
The billboards, featuring the slogan “It's time for a new Middle East,” show Arab leaders including the kings of Bahrain and Morocco, the sultan of Oman, the leaders of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas—and, prominently, Syria’s Ahmad al-Sharaa. At the center of the image are Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The inclusion of al-Sharaa—whose country's ties with Israel remain deeply fraught—drew sharp reactions in the region. A Syrian Telegram channel condemned the appearance of Syria’s president “next to the Zionist enemy” in a normalization campaign. Iraq’s pro-Iranian Sabrin agency labeled al-Sharaa and Abbas “terrorists” featured in the normalization effort. Lebanese outlets linked the poster to Witkoff’s remarks, interpreting them as signals that Israel’s success against Iran could accelerate Arab states joining the Abraham Accords.
Maybe back in Connecticut, they don't teach about counting chicks before the eggs hatch? Which also seems to explain this paragraph:
Oh, and while the foreign policy elite was busy choking on their Chardonnay, Trump defanged Iran’s nuclear program, a feat previous presidents only dared to drone on about all without starting a war. Imagine that.
We do not know if a war has been truly averted, there were no fangs before, but Trump has given Iran a reason to grow them.
I had seen no headlines about the Congo, so I found myself surprised by the following:
Meanwhile, in Africa, a region Washington remembers every few years when Bono sends a letter, a 30-year war in the Congo has been brought to a close. Six million lives lost over decades—and now, a pivot from bullets to business. Commerce over conflict. And in the process, we secured mineral rights that just so happen to boost our economy and loosen China’s grip on rare earths. Double win.
By now, I am wondering where Mr. Rapini gets his news; his enthusiasm for premature expostulations begin looking more like wishful thinking, if not propaganda.
DR Congo-Rwanda ceasefire deal still faces many challenges (BBC)
Due to the eastern DR Congo's vast mineral resources, critical to modern technology including electric car and mobile phone batteries, the economic incentives for rebel groups are incredibly tempting, and this deal does not mention alternatives which may convince these groups to stop fighting over valuable territory. Integrating them into an under-resourced Congolese armed force is unlikely to prove enough of a deterrent.
It's also still not clear what preferential access, if any, the US has been offered to DR Congo's minerals.
President Donald Trump has made it clear that this is one of his key incentives for agreeing to support the peace process. But granting the US unfettered access to the country's mineral wealth is unpopular with many in DR Congo, upset that the country's resources have failed to provide a better life for its citizens.
Has Trump scored another deal like his deal with North Korea to stop its nuclear weapons, and like Mexico building him a wall?
These points, made by Mr. Rapini, sound much better for Trump:
- The economy? Booming.
- Stock market? Record highs.
- Inflation? Controlled.
Tariffs? No longer the dirty word of 2018. In fact, some economists (the same ones who mocked Trump back then) are eating crow on CNBC and admitting: the tariff policy worked. Maybe—just maybe—he saw something they didn’t.
Maybe it is MAGA who is wearing the rose-colored glasses nowadays?
US stocks rise to closing high despite Donald Trump halting trade talks with Canada (Financial Times)
But Trump’s subsequent delay to some of his tariff plans, along with a series of climbdowns from his more aggressive threats and relatively robust economic data, have spurred a rapid comeback for stocks. Investors said stocks had also been given a boost this week by the potential scrapping of a provision in Trump’s budget bill that would allow the administration to raise taxes on foreign investments. “Peak trade uncertainty is in the past, [the US economy] remains resilient and the narrative has re-centred on AI and growth,” said Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy at Barclays. Citi’s top US equity strategist Scott Chronert expects the S&P 500 to rally a further 2.5 per cent by the end of 2025. Stocks’ rebound contrasts with continuing pressure on US Treasuries and the dollar — which fell to a three-year low this week — caused by rising concerns about the sustainability of the country’s growing debt.
Stock market record: S&P 500, Nasdaq hit record highs (CNN Business)
Markets got another boost Friday after China signaled it would reopen its rare earth market to the United States. The news came just hours after White House officials said the two sides had reached a deal — a major breakthrough following weeks of negotiations.
Despite a 10% universal tariff that remains in place, in addition to 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, and 25% tariffs on autos and auto parts, markets have largely looked past trade in recent weeks, focusing instead on other reasons for optimism or concern.
Top economist sees scenario where Trump 'outsmarted all of us' on tariffs (Fortune)
US consumer spending falls; tariff-related boost to inflation awaited (Reuters)In a note on Saturday titled “Has Trump Outsmarted Everyone on Tariffs?,” Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk laid out a scenario that keeps tariffs well below Trump’s most aggressive rates long enough to ease uncertainty and avoid the economic harm that comes with it.
In this scenario, the higher tariff costs coupled with elevated interest rates cause businesses to slow their pace of investment and hiring throughout the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. This may lead to the unemployment rate to rise to 4.6% in 2026. Elevated trade barriers on US imports as well as exports slow the pace of international trade, with real imports of goods and services falling by 7.1% in 2026, and real exports falling 1.8%. As a result, real GDP growth is expected to be 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. Real GDP accelerates in 2027 and 2028 before settling into its steady-state growth rate of about 1.8% in 2029.
I confess I have not read this week's Supreme Court opinions, nor even much commentary. The heat has been stressful enough for me not to add more to my brain.
Then came the Supreme Court hat trick:
- Parents reclaimed sovereignty over what their kids are exposed to in classrooms.
- Activist judges got benched, reined in from overruling elected leaders with every personal whim.
- And finally, the bombshell: a constitutional correction decades overdue. No more birthright citizenship for the children of non-citizens. An American right, restored to Americans
I do not really mind that there can no longer be a nation-wide injunction emanating from forum shopping. That creates a situation where 28 states now have citizens uncertain about their fate may make them rethink their votes for Attorney General.
As for parental vetos on their children's education, I think it is an overstated fear. Parents have a say in their school boards, I assume. More importantly, replicating ignorance and bigotry will not prepare those children for the real world, so they should lose out to their better-educated peers. They can then stay living with their parents.
More troublesome is this restriction on birthright citizenship: where does it stop? The United Supreme Court completely rewrote the 14th Amendment's insurrection language, so how long before it implements Christian Nationalist thinking that America belongs to White Christians only. It will be ironic if a majority Roman Catholic Supreme Court hands this power over to a Protestantism that will not include them.
The future is fraught.
A few items from the anti-MAGA side that put Mr. Rapini visions of a Trumpian Apotheosis:
Let us not go gently into the night - Steve Schmidt.
No, the opposition still stands, and Trump is not - yet - Ruler of America.
What the opposition needs to take seriously is this adolescent adulation of violence as manliness. Men were supposed to be more competent; these people put no value on competence other than its expression in bombast and temper tantrums.
sch
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